Posted On: 11/8/2026, 5:18:30 PM
Last Update: 11/8/2026, 5:18:30 PM
Danish shipping group Maersk raised its 2026 profit guidance for the third time, driven by high container freight rates due to port congestion and AI-driven demand. However, shares fell 11% amidst analyst expectations of the upgrade and disappointing third-quarter profits.
The profit increase came from higher prices rather than cargo volume, linking earnings to congestion issues that may ease as ships return to the Suez Canal and new vessels arrive.
The world's second-largest container line forecasts an underlying profit before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) of $14 billion to $14.5 billion for this year, significantly higher than its prior estimate of $10.5 billion to $12.5 billion.
Additionally, the underlying operating profit (EBIT) is projected to be between $8 billion and $8.5 billion, compared to an earlier range of $4.5 billion to $6.5 billion.
Maersk's new EBITDA guidance aligns with analyst expectations of $14.02 billion for the year, as per an LSEG poll. In the third quarter, the company reported a profit before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation of $4.7 billion, marking a 75% increase but falling short of the consensus forecast of $5.04 billion. Analysts attributed this operating profit shortfall to weaker-than-expected volumes and increased costs within the Ocean division.
As noted by CEO Vincent Clerc, global trade has shown unexpected resilience amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and disruptions. He attributes this stability to robust consumer spending, alongside significant investments in electrification and energy, as well as a rapid expansion of AI infrastructure. These factors are contributing to increased industrial cargo movements globally.
Moreover, a recent report from the World Trade Organisation highlights that increased spending on semiconductors and artificial intelligence (AI) data centres has positively impacted global trade, helping to mitigate disruptions caused by the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Specifically in the United States, shipping company Maersk has noted that economic activity remains robust, driven by consumer spending and business investments associated with the expansion of AI capabilities.
Ocean volumes remained generally stable compared to the previous year. In contrast, freight rates experienced a significant increase of 46% from the prior quarter and more than a doubling from the same time last year. This rise is attributed to ongoing port congestion and Maersk's gradual re-entry into the Suez Canal, a route that many shippers avoided in late 2023 due to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
Likewise, Maersk announced the resumption of its ME1 service connecting India and Europe through the canal. The company noted that growth in China remains limited due to weak domestic demand, with recent fiscal initiatives only offering modest improvements.
Furthermore, Asian exports experienced a slowdown in July and August due to weather disruptions. Despite these challenges, Maersk has significantly raised its profit outlook since the beginning of the year, initially cautioning that the introduction of new ships and the reopening of the Suez Canal would negatively impact rates. The company continues to anticipate a global container volume growth of approximately 4% for the year.
Maritime Online Courses on port congestion analysis explore non-linear dynamics that arise when vessel volumes exceed terminal capacity. Key research areas include identifying bottlenecks, root causes such as mega-vessels and geopolitical issues, utilising metrics like AIS tracking and container dwell times for delay measurement, assessing financial impacts like demurrage, and evaluating mitigation strategies such as digital Port Community Systems and automation.
